The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 4-1 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 18, 2026, in a game that remained tight through seven innings before St. Louis pulled away decisively in the bottom of the eighth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 65 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Cardinals controlled the game's final act.
The eighth inning was where the contest was effectively decided, driven by back-to-back home runs off Astros reliever Trey Dombroski. Ramon Mendoza connected first, a swing that added 20.4 percent to the Cardinals' win probability and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. Tai Peete followed with a home run of his own, adding another 18.8 percent. Those two swings transformed what had been a tense 1-1 game into a commanding 4-1 Cardinals lead. Earlier in the sixth inning, Shay Whitcomb contributed a groundout that generated a swing of plus 11.7 percent for Houston, while a Riley Unroe double play off Ryne Stanek in that same half-inning cost the Astros 13.7 percent in win probability, blunting any momentum they may have been building.
Among the game's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Mendoza led all batters with a combined WPA of plus 24.0 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.1, while Peete finished at plus 18.8 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. Whitcomb also stood out at plus 14.1 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Kyle Leahy paced the Cardinals staff at plus 14.9 percent WPA, followed by Matt Svanson at plus 13.0 percent and J.P. France at plus 11.0 percent, as St. Louis held Houston to just five hits and no errors through nine innings of work.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.