The Los Angeles Angels held off the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on March 18, 2026, erasing what had been a 49 percent pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee according to the DiamondIQ model. The Angels struck early and decisively, with Jeimer Candelario's second-inning home run off Kyle Harrison accounting for an 11.2 percent swing in win probability and part of a four-run burst that gave Los Angeles all the cushion it would ultimately need. The Brewers chipped away with a run in the fifth, another on a Luis Rengifo home run in the seventh that shifted probability 11.9 percent toward the Angels, and then a Jake Bauers home run in the eighth off Shaun Anderson that represented an 18.8 percent swing and brought Milwaukee within one.
The game's most consequential moment arrived in the bottom of the eighth when Garrett Mitchell struck out against Houston Harding, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at a negative 29.8 percent swing in win probability from the Brewers' perspective, effectively draining Milwaukee's remaining margin for comeback. Harding continued to work the ninth, and while Ramón Rodríguez's flyout to end the game generated a positive 19.0 percent swing for the Angels in win-probability terms, it also sealed the outcome cleanly. Rodríguez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-26.0 percent, with Rengifo close behind at plus-18.7 percent and Bauers at plus-15.8 percent despite pitching for the losing side of his own home run.
On the mound, Ryan Johnson led all pitchers with a plus-18.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by Harding at plus-13.1 percent. The Angels' pitching staff successfully protected a lead that was established in a single second-inning outburst and never fully relinquished, finishing with eight hits and one error to Milwaukee's eight hits and two errors.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.