The New York Yankees defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 at Charlotte Sports Park on March 17, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested before breaking open in the final inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Tampa Bay just a 29% chance of winning before first pitch, and that figure collapsed to 0% by game's end, with the decisive action concentrated almost entirely in the ninth inning.
The Yankees pushed across two runs in the top of the ninth to take a 3-1 lead, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate identified two moments as the game's most critical swings. A Ben Rice single off Joe Boyle shifted win probability 22.5 percentage points in New York's favor, and a Coby Morales single off Hunter Bigge added another 21.9 points, extending what had been a one-run margin into a two-run cushion. Tampa Bay answered with a Raynel Delgado single off Kervin Castro in the bottom of the ninth that added 16.8 percentage points to the Rays' chances and plated a run, but Logan Davidson's strikeout swung probability 31.6 points back toward New York, and Daniel Vellojin's double-play ball against Castro delivered the most damaging single moment of the game, a 40.0-point probability collapse that effectively ended Tampa Bay's chances.
Among the standout performers, Logan Davidson led all batters with a 31.6% WPA contribution despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.1, while Coby Morales posted a 1.1 RE24 alongside his 21.9% WPA mark. On the pitching side, Ryan Pepiot led the staff with a 23.3% WPA, supported by Yovanny Cruz at 10.9% and Osvaldo Bido at 8.3%, a collective effort that kept Tampa Bay largely in check across the first eight innings before the Yankees sealed the result in the ninth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.