The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers played to a 1-1 tie on March 17, 2026, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win probability entering at 54% and collapsing to 0% at the final out. The lone Baltimore run came in the top of the fifth, when Bryan Ramos hit a home run off Justin Verlander to put the Orioles ahead 1-0, a swing that added 13.0% in win probability and anchored Ramos's game-high batting WPA of plus-21.3% alongside a RE24 of plus-1.3. Detroit answered in the bottom of the eighth, though the path to that tying run was complicated by Colt Keith's flyout off Jose Espada, a play that actually shifted win probability 14.3% in Baltimore's favor before the Tigers ultimately pushed the game even.
The final inning produced the most consequential sequence of the game. With Detroit threatening in the bottom of the ninth against Ryan Long, Max Burt worked a walk that swung win probability 13.5% toward the Tigers and set the stage for a potential walk-off. Instead, Corey Julks grounded into a double play, a single play that erased 16.0% of Detroit's win probability and effectively ended the game as a tie. On the mound, Chris Bassitt was the standout performer by WPA, posting a plus-21.8% mark, while Konnor Pilkington added plus-13.5% in relief, including a strikeout of Luis Vázquez in the top of the ninth that cost Baltimore 10.9% in win probability. Joe Glassey contributed plus-10.6% WPA for Detroit's pitching staff.
Ramos and the pitching trio of Bassitt, Pilkington, and Glassey were the principal drivers of a tightly contested spring training contest that neither side could ultimately close out. Baltimore finished with seven hits and an error, Detroit with four hits and a clean defensive game, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected just how evenly matched the two clubs were across nine innings before the Julks double play rendered a winner impossible.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.