The New York Mets and Miami Marlins played to a 5-5 tie on March 17, 2026 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability at exactly zero percent after opening the day at 39 percent. The Mets drew first blood in the third inning when Bo Bichette laced a double off Sandy Alcantara, a play that shifted win probability 16.5 percentage points in New York's favor, and the Mets carried a 2-0 lead into the middle innings. Miami answered with a run in the fifth before both offenses stalled, but the game's complexion changed dramatically in the seventh when Bichette connected on a home run off Robby Snelling, swinging win probability another 19.4 points toward the Mets and pushing their advantage to 5-1 entering the bottom half of that frame.
Miami refused to fold. The Marlins clawed back with a run in the bottom of the seventh, then mounted the game's most consequential sequence in the eighth inning, when Jacob Jenkins-Cowart crushed a home run off Colton Cosper that represented a staggering 39.5-point swing in win probability, the single most impactful play of the afternoon, and pulled Miami all the way even at five. The Mets threatened in no inning thereafter, and Jesús Bastidas preserved the tie by generating a strikeout against Zach Peek in the ninth worth 14.0 points of win probability, capping an evening in which Bastidas also appeared on the negative side of the ledger with an 11.5-point swing against the Mets on a forceout in the seventh.
Bichette finished as the game's most productive offensive force by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, accumulating a combined 33.6 percent in win-probability added and a RE24 of plus-3.6 across his two extra-base hits. Jenkins-Cowart's eighth-inning blast gave him a WPA of plus-39.5 and a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the decisive figure in Miami's comeback. On the pitching side, Hoss Brewer led all arms at plus-10.9 percent WPA, edging Sean Manaea at plus-10.6 and Andrew Nardi at plus-7.0, as the bullpens on both sides ultimately kept the game deadlocked through nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.