The Seattle Mariners defeated the Colorado Rockies 10-6 at Salt River Fields at Taking Stick on March 17, 2026, handing Colorado a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the day with a 71% pre-game win probability for the home side. Seattle scored in five of nine innings, putting up runs in the second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and ninth to steadily drain Colorado's early advantage and pull away for the final margin.
The decisive stretch came in the fourth and sixth innings, where the game's largest win-probability swings were concentrated. In the bottom of the fourth, Willi Castro's single off Peyton Alford shifted win probability by plus 20.6 percentage points for Colorado, and Jake McCarthy followed with a double off the same pitcher for an additional plus 12.8 points, giving the Rockies a temporary foothold. However, Seattle responded in the top of the sixth when Carson Taylor doubled off Chase Dollander for a plus 17.7-point swing that tilted the game back toward the Mariners for good. Colorado's best chance to recover evaporated in the bottom of the eighth, when Vimael Machin grounded into a double play off Casey Lawrence, a minus 17.8-point swing that effectively closed the door. Braxton Fulford added a home run off Lawrence in the seventh for plus 10.9 points, but it proved insufficient.
Carson Taylor led all players in WPA at plus 22.9 with an RE24 of plus 1.3, while Jake McCarthy posted plus 14.5 WPA and an RE24 of plus 1.5. Patrick Wisdom contributed plus 15.4 WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.3. On the pitching side, Casey Lawrence was Seattle's most impactful arm at plus 14.9 WPA, with Yosver Zulueta adding plus 6.3 WPA and Victor Juarez contributing plus 1.3. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Colorado's win probability fell from 71% before first pitch to 0% at the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Seattle erased the Rockies' projected advantage across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.