The Cleveland Guardians overcame a six-run Cincinnati effort to win 8-6 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 17, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for the Reds and reducing it to zero by the final out. The game was largely a measured affair through seven innings before Cleveland erupted for five runs in the top of the eighth, turning a tight contest into a decisive road victory. Cincinnati had shown life of its own in the bottom of the fifth, when Elly De La Cruz delivered a single off Codi Heuer that carried a win-probability swing of plus-20.4 percent, and the Reds had built a narrow cushion heading into the later stages.
The eighth inning proved to be the pivotal sequence of the afternoon. With the Guardians facing Brock Burke, Reiner Herrera laced a triple that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-21.2 percent, fundamentally shifting control of the contest to Cleveland. Nolan Jones followed with a single off Burke worth plus-13.7 percent, compounding the damage as the Guardians pushed across five runs in the frame to take what became an insurmountable lead. Travis Bazzana had also done meaningful work earlier, his fifth-inning double off Nick Lodolo registering a plus-19.9 percent swing that kept Cleveland's offensive momentum alive.
Among individual performers, Herrera finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-20.8 percent with an RE24 of plus-0.8, while De La Cruz led all hitters in RE24 at plus-1.2 despite falling on the losing side. Juan Brito also posted strong figures at plus-14.4 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. On the pitching side, Graham Ashcraft led Cincinnati's staff with a plus-7.3 percent WPA contribution, closely followed by Sam Moll at plus-7.2 percent, though their efforts were ultimately undone by the eighth-inning collapse. Cleveland's Magnus Ellerts closed things out in the ninth, getting Cade Hunter to ground out for a plus-14.4 percent swing that ended the Reds' final threat.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.