The Los Angeles Dodgers rolled past the Kansas City Royals 10-4 at Surprise Stadium on March 17, 2026, a result that was far more lopsided than the early innings suggested. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Royals holding a 23 percent home win probability, and Kansas City briefly showed why with a pair of two-run rallies in the fourth and fifth innings that kept the game competitive through the middle frames. That window closed decisively in the top of the ninth, when Jack Suwinski connected on a home run off Héctor Neris that swung win probability by 34.2 percent, the single most impactful play of the game. The Dodgers had already pushed ahead entering that inning, but the six-run ninth — supported by Ryan Fitzgerald's earlier double off Lucas Erceg in the eighth that added 10.7 percent — buried any remaining hope for the Royals and left the home side at zero percent by the final out.
On the Kansas City side, Luca Tresh's fourth-inning home run off Roki Sasaki was the Royals' most consequential swing, generating an 18.0 percent win-probability gain and accounting for a RE24 of plus-1.3. Kevin Newman followed with a single in the seventh off Alex Vesia worth 14.5 percent, but Brandon Drury's strikeout in the same half-inning erased 9.5 percent of that momentum and effectively ended the Royals' last credible threat. Suwinski finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-28.2 percent, while Starling Marte contributed plus-15.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4. On the mound, Nick Robertson led all pitchers at plus-15.9 percent, edging Bailey Falter's plus-15.7 percent, with Cody Morse adding plus-10.9 percent as the Dodgers' bullpen combination rendered the Royals' nine-hit output ultimately inconsequential.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.