The Washington Nationals handed the New York Mets a 12-6 defeat at Clover Park on March 16, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 59 percent pre-game home win probability for New York and running it all the way to zero by the final out. Washington scored in six of nine innings, with the damage concentrated at the bookends — a two-run first, a two-run fourth, and a punishing six-run ninth that put the game completely out of reach.
The most decisive single moment belonged to Christian Arroyo, whose home run off Jackson Rutledge in the bottom of the eighth shifted win probability by 35.3 percent in the Mets' favor, briefly keeping New York in contention. That swing, however, proved short-lived. Washington answered emphatically in the top of the ninth, where James Wood delivered a double off Christian Scott for a 17.5 percent win-probability swing, and Joey Wiemer followed with another double off Douglas Orellana worth 16.8 percent, as the Nationals piled on all six of their ninth-inning runs. Riley Adams had provided the earlier offensive catalyst with a single off David Peterson in the fourth that added 20.1 percent in Washington's favor.
On the individual ledger, Wood was the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-28.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, driven by both his ninth-inning double and a solo home run off Scott in the seventh worth 13.4 percent. Arroyo led the Mets at plus-25.4 percent WPA despite the team's loss, while Adams contributed plus-17.9 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 for Washington. Out of the bullpen, Julian Fernández paced the Nationals' relievers at plus-8.8 percent WPA, followed by Clayton Beeter at plus-7.9 percent and Devin Williams at plus-6.3 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.