The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 3-1 at Peoria Stadium on March 16, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 36 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was scoreless through five innings before San Diego broke through in the bottom of the sixth, and that frame proved to be the decisive turn. A Bryce Johnson single off Spencer Bivens added 9.3 percent to San Diego's win probability, and Ty France followed with a single of his own that contributed another 9.2 percent, the two hits combining to fuel the Padres' three-run burst that ultimately stood as the margin of victory. San Francisco finished with seven hits but committed three errors, while San Diego was clean defensively despite managing only five hits.
The Giants made a late push that briefly threatened to close the gap. In the top of the eighth, Jake Holton drew a walk off Jackson Wolf that swung win probability 10.0 percent in San Francisco's favor, keeping alive what had become a slim window of opportunity. That window narrowed sharply when Christian Koss struck out against Wolf in the same inning, a minus-9.0 percent swing that effectively extinguished the rally. San Francisco added a run in the seventh but could not generate any further damage, and Osleivis Basabe's triple off Ty Adcock in the ninth, while the single most impactful batting play of the game at plus-10.3 percent, came too late to alter the outcome.
On the mound, Walker Buehler was the game's most dominant individual contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-29.3 percent for San Diego. Tyler Mahle added 8.6 percent and Jeremiah Estrada contributed 7.1 percent as the Padres' staff collectively limited San Francisco to a single run. The Giants' Spencer Bivens absorbed the damage in the sixth and could not escape the inning cleanly, surrendering the key hits to both Johnson and France that set the tone for San Diego's comfortable if low-scoring win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.