The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-2 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 16, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 58% pre-game home win probability for Cleveland to 0% by the final out. The decisive stretch came in the second inning, when the Cubs pushed across three runs to build a lead they would not relinquish. Scott Kingery's home run off Gavin Williams was the single biggest positive swing of the game for Chicago, adding 9.3% in win probability, while Miguel Amaya's strikeout against Williams in the same frame added another 7.3% from the Cubs' side as Cleveland failed to answer. The Guardians' best chance to shift momentum arrived in the bottom of the second, when Milan Tolentino lined out against Cade Horton in a spot that cost Cleveland 9.9% in win probability, extinguishing what could have been a rally.
Chicago extended its advantage in the fifth inning on a Kevin Alcántara double off Connor Brogdon, a swing worth 7.2% in win probability that pushed the Cubs to a 4-2 cushion and effectively put the game out of reach. On the mound, Cade Horton was the defining factor, accumulating a game-high 27.8% in win probability added and holding Cleveland in check through the heart of the contest. Colin Rea closed things out, adding 3.7% WPA as Dauri Fernandez grounded out in the ninth to strand any final Guardians hope. Among position players, Kingery led Chicago with plus-7.7% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, followed by Alcántara at plus-6.9% WPA and Amaya at plus-6.4% WPA, giving the Cubs a balanced offensive effort that complemented Horton's dominant performance on the hill.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.