The Milwaukee Brewers demolished the Los Angeles Dodgers 24-9 at Camelback Ranch on March 16, 2026, in a game that was not nearly as close as a nine-run margin suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 74% pre-game win probability favoring Los Angeles, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Milwaukee scored in five of nine innings and finished with 16 hits against zero errors, while the Dodgers committed three errors of their own across a largely forgettable afternoon.
The decisive moment came in the top of the fifth inning, when Brandon Lockridge connected on a home run off Blake Treinen that shifted win probability by 35.7 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, the single most impactful play of the contest. That frame proved catastrophic for Los Angeles, as Milwaukee plated 10 runs in the inning alone, with Gary Sánchez adding a single off Jerming Rosario that carried a 14.8-point swing and Tyler Black following with another single for an additional 8.4-point move. The Brewers then reopened the wounds in the seventh, scoring nine more runs to make any remaining hope for the Dodgers purely academic. The lone moment of Los Angeles leverage came in the third inning, when Teoscar Hernández hit a home run off Chad Patrick worth 16.6 points of win probability, but Milwaukee's fifth-inning explosion rendered that rally inconsequential.
Lockridge was the clear standout, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-39.5 and an RE24 of plus-3.8, while Sánchez contributed plus-18.6 WPA on the day. On the mound, the Brewers' bullpen sustained the advantage efficiently, with Jared Koenig leading Milwaukee pitchers at plus-6.0 WPA and Trevor Megill adding plus-5.6. The DiamondIQ model's estimate swung so dramatically through the fifth and seventh innings that the contest effectively ended well before the Brewers finished their scoring in the ninth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.