The Los Angeles Angels edged the Colorado Rockies 6-5 at Tempe Diablo Stadium on March 15, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically before the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at 100% in favor of the home side. The Angels entered with a 54% pre-game win probability and needed a walk-off to cash it in, with the decisive blow coming in the bottom of the ninth when Zach Humphreys singled off Stu Flesland III to plate the winning run, a play that shifted win probability by 35.9 points. It capped a remarkable individual performance from Humphreys, who had already delivered a two-run home run off Brennan Bernardino in the bottom of the seventh, a swing worth 27.6 points of win probability that erased what had been a Colorado lead.
The Rockies built their early advantage through Hunter Goodman, whose home run off Drew Pomeranz in the top of the third added 17.0 points of win probability and headlined a frame in which Colorado plated three runs to take a 3-1 lead through three innings. Colorado threatened to close the game out in the top of the ninth when Vimael Machín doubled off Samy Natera Jr., a hit worth 17.5 points of win probability that pushed the Rockies within one, but the Angels answered immediately. Jeimer Candelario had kept Los Angeles in striking range earlier with a home run off John Brebbia in the fifth, a plus-19.7% swing that began the Angels' comeback in earnest.
Humphreys finished as the game's dominant individual performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-63.5% and an RE24 of plus-2.6. Candelario followed at plus-22.9% WPA and plus-2.2 RE24, while Goodman led Colorado's contributors at plus-23.6% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 despite the loss. On the mound, Samy Natera Jr. led Angels pitchers at plus-13.5% WPA, followed by Tanner Gordon at plus-11.8% and Seth Halvorsen at plus-10.9%. Colorado finished with two errors against none for Los Angeles, a margin that proved costly in a one-run game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.