The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks finished in a 4-4 tie on March 15, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, a game that spent its first seven innings scoreless before erupting with all eight runs in the final three frames. Arizona struck first and hardest, plating all four of its runs in the bottom of the fourth on a sequence that included an Aramis Garcia single off Randy Vásquez, a hit that carried an 11.0 percentage point swing in win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Diamondbacks carried that lead into the eighth, at which point the pre-game home win probability of 49 percent had shifted sharply in their favor.
San Diego mounted its comeback across the final two innings, beginning with a Romeo Sanabria double off Brandyn Garcia in the top of the eighth that added 22.6 percentage points of win probability and helped the Padres score three runs to pull within one. The critical blow came in the top of the ninth, when Pablo Reyes doubled off Andrew Hoffmann for a 32.5-point swing, the single largest win-probability play of the game, tying the score at four. Arizona had a chance to walk it off in the bottom of the ninth, but a Danny Serretti lineout off Justin Yeager, while carrying a 14.0-point swing in the Diamondbacks' favor by ending a threat, ultimately left the game knotted. Carlos Rodriguez's flyout to close the ninth for San Diego represented the largest negative swing of the game at minus 8.9 points, underlining how close Arizona came to ending things.
Among pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating 19.7 percentage points of win probability value for Arizona, followed by John Curtiss at 6.8 and Jonathan Loaisiga at 3.3. Reyes and Sanabria paced San Diego's offensive contributors by WPA, while Serretti's 14.0-point swing reflected the high-leverage moment he navigated late for the Diamondbacks. The final error totals of two for San Diego and one for Arizona were the only blemishes on a game ultimately decided by neither team.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.