The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 1-0 on March 15, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Houston managed just one hit across nine innings but made it count, while Miami finished with three hits and committed one error in a game that stayed scoreless until the bottom of the eighth.
The decisive sequence came in that eighth inning, where Shay Whitcomb's double off Bradley Blalock was the single most impactful play of the game, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 16.6 percent in Houston's favor. Mason Lytle followed with a flyout off Garrett Acton that nonetheless added another plus 7.8 percent to Houston's win probability, suggesting the run had already scored or was in the process of scoring with favorable base-out conditions. Miami mounted a brief threat in the top of the ninth when Abrahan Ramirez singled off AJ Blubaugh to push the Marlins' win probability up 7.6 percent, but Griffin Conine's strikeout cost Miami 8.9 percent and PJ Morlando's strikeout another 7.1 percent, effectively ending the rally and sealing the outcome.
On the pitching side, AJ Blubaugh was the most valuable arm by win probability added, finishing at plus 25.7 percent WPA despite surrendering the Ramirez single in the ninth. Eury Pérez contributed plus 17.7 percent WPA and Cristian Javier added plus 13.9 percent, as Houston's collective staff held Miami to three hits over nine innings. Among position players, Whitcomb led all batters with a plus 11.7 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24, while Ramirez's plus 7.6 percent WPA and plus 0.3 RE24 represented the brightest spot in an otherwise quiet afternoon for the Marlins offense.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.