The New York Mets handled the Toronto Blue Jays decisively at Clover Park on March 15, 2026, winning 8-1 in a game that was effectively decided by the second inning. Toronto drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 64 percent pre-game home win probability for New York ultimately proved conservative, as the Mets closed at 100 percent by the final out.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the second, when New York erupted for five runs to seize full control of the game. Mike Tauchman delivered a single off Grant Rogers that shifted win probability by 6.7 percent in the Mets' favor, and Brett Baty followed with his own single off Rogers for another 6.1 percent swing. Baty then added to his impact with a groundout off Pat Gallagher that still moved the needle 5.7 percent as runs continued to cross, and Bo Bichette's double off Gallagher contributed a further 4.6 percent swing. That second inning essentially rendered the final seven frames a formality, as Toronto managed no additional scoring against a Mets pitching staff that held the Blue Jays to four hits while committing zero errors.
Baty finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a combined WPA of plus-11.9 percent, while Tauchman came in second at plus-8.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, reflecting his direct run-creation impact. Addison Barger was the lone bright spot for Toronto in the WPA column at plus-6.1 percent, a figure derived from a lineout in the first that temporarily checked New York's momentum. On the mound, Luke Weaver led Mets pitchers with a WPA contribution of plus-0.7 percent, supported by Dan Hammer at plus-0.6 percent as the staff efficiently protected a comfortable lead.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.