The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Minnesota Twins 9-6 at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 14, 2026, overcoming a game the DiamondIQ model had initially given the Twins a 54 percent chance of winning. The Rays built their lead incrementally through the middle innings before sealing the outcome with a four-run ninth, leaving Minnesota's win probability at zero by the final out.
The decisive swings came largely from Justyn-Henry Malloy, whose double in the top of the fourth off Simeon Woods Richardson added 19.1 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, the second-largest play of the game. Malloy compounded that damage with a single off Liam Hendriks in the sixth that shifted the model another 13.3 percent in the Rays' favor, giving him a cumulative WPA of plus-31.8 percent on the day to go along with a RE24 of plus-2.5. Minnesota's most significant countermovement came in the bottom of the fifth, when Matt Wallner hit a home run off Kevin Kelly that swung win probability 22.1 percent toward the Twins. Wallner finished as the second-most impactful batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus-19.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4. However, Royce Lewis's strikeout at the hands of Hunter Bigge in the bottom of the sixth, a minus-11.9 percent swing, blunted Minnesota's momentum at a critical juncture.
On the mound, Hunter Bigge led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.7 percent, followed by Yoendrys Gómez at plus-13.3 percent and Jake Woodford at plus-9.5 percent, a collective performance that kept Tampa Bay in front despite Minnesota scoring three runs in the final frame. Xavier Isaac also contributed offensively, adding plus-8.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0. The Rays finished with ten hits and committed no errors, while Minnesota managed only six hits in a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately reflected as no remaining path to a Twins victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.