The Philadelphia Phillies erased a pre-game deficit in win probability to defeat the New York Yankees 6-4 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 14, 2026, overcoming the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 66 percent home win probability for New York. Philadelphia struck first in the third inning, when Dylan Moore's single off Max Fried proved to be the game's early hinge point, adding 15.9 percentage points to the Phillies' win probability and contributing to a three-run frame that gave Philadelphia its initial lead. The Yankees responded with a run in the fourth and two more in the seventh, with Paul DeJong's double off Andrew Walling generating a 17.1-point swing in New York's favor and briefly tilting the DiamondIQ model back toward the home side.
The game's decisive blow came in the top of the ninth, when Felix Reyes launched a home run off Angel Chivilli for a 35.1-point win-probability swing, the single largest play of the contest. That shot extended the Phillies' lead and effectively ended New York's chances, with Kenedy Corona's flyout to close the bottom of the ninth representing the final 14.4-point swing in Philadelphia's direction. Braden Shewmake had earlier kept Yankee hopes alive with a home run off Seth Johnson in the eighth, a 23.6-point swing, but the deficit ultimately proved too steep to overcome.
Among individual performers, Reyes led all batters with a plus-30.1 WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24, while Shewmake posted plus-23.6 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in a losing effort. Moore contributed plus-16.6 WPA and the game's top RE24 mark at plus-1.2. On the pitching side, Bryse Wilson paced Philadelphia's staff with a plus-17.4 WPA, supported by Jake Bird at plus-7.7 and Kyle Backhus at plus-7.5, as the three combined to hold New York's offense in check through the game's critical later innings. The Yankees' three errors proved costly against a Phillies club that capitalized on each opportunity.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.