The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-6 at LECOM Park on March 14, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win climbing from 75% before the game to a certainty by the final out. Baltimore built an early edge in the third inning when Adley Rutschman connected on a home run off Carmen Mlodzinski, a swing that shifted win probability 16.2 points in Baltimore's favor. The Orioles added two more in the sixth on a Dylan Beavers home run off Cam Sanders, a blow worth 26.2 percentage points and one of the most consequential moments of the afternoon for the visiting side. Pittsburgh answered in the bottom half of that frame and then broke the game open in the seventh, when Marcell Ozuna launched a home run off Yaramil Hiraldo that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 38.7 points, effectively seizing control for the Pirates.
Ozuna finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 28.4 with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Rutschman posted the highest run-expectancy number among all batters at plus 2.3 despite being on the losing side, finishing at plus 27.3 WPA across his two key contributions. Beavers rounded out the top three at plus 24.2 WPA and plus 1.8 RE24. Pittsburgh added insurance in the eighth via a Billy Cook home run off Hans Crouse, worth 15.2 points of win probability. On the mound, Dietrich Enns led Pittsburgh's pitching staff by WPA at plus 12.7, followed by Isaac Mattson at plus 10.8 and Trevor Rogers at plus 5.9, a trio that held Baltimore to one run over the final three innings despite the Orioles finishing with 13 hits on the night.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.