The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 4-1 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 14, 2026, handing Washington a loss fueled in large part by four Nationals errors. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with the Nationals holding a 54% win probability as the home side, but Miami seized control early and that figure fell all the way to zero by the final out. The Marlins plated their runs in a pair of decisive frames, scoring two in the third and two more in the fourth, while Washington's lone run came in the bottom of the fifth on a Brady House double off Tyler Zuber, a play that added 6.8% to the Nationals' win probability but amounted to their only meaningful threat of the afternoon.
The two swings that effectively ended the competitive portion of the game belonged to Griffin Conine and Bennett Hostetler. Conine's fielder's choice in the third inning, coming off Alex Clemmey, was the single biggest play of the contest, shifting win probability 18.7% in Miami's favor and giving him a game-high WPA of plus-17.5% alongside a RE24 of plus-1.4. Hostetler then extended the lead in the fourth with a home run against Thomas Schultz, a swing worth plus-13.0% in win probability that left him with a WPA of plus-13.1% and an RE24 of plus-1.6. Washington's best late opportunity evaporated in the sixth when Abimelec Ortiz grounded out against Tyler Zuber, a play that cost the Nationals 10.1% in win probability, and a Tres Barrera walk in the eighth off Samuel Vasquez added a final insurance increment of plus-6.6% for Miami.
On the mound, the Marlins received strong contributions from Michael Petersen, who led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-9.6%, followed by Colby Martin at plus-6.4% and Josh Ekness at plus-6.3%. Washington's pitching staff was undermined throughout by the defense behind them, as the Nationals committed four errors in a game where they managed four hits but could not convert any of that production into sustained pressure. The final line of 4-1 in Miami's favor reflected a game that was largely in hand from the middle innings forward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.