The Arizona Diamondbacks erased a five-run deficit to defeat the San Francisco Giants 8-7 at Scottsdale Stadium on March 14, 2026, in one of the more dramatic spring reversals the DiamondIQ model has tracked. The Giants entered the day as heavy favorites, with the model's pre-game home win probability sitting at 78 percent, but San Francisco's bullpen could not hold the advantage, and Arizona's closer Logan Mercado slammed the door in the ninth to preserve a one-run win.
The game's decisive stretch came in the top of the sixth inning, when Jacob Amaya launched a home run off Keaton Winn that shifted Arizona's win probability by plus-19.6 percent, erasing the bulk of what had been a commanding Giants lead built during a five-run fourth inning. That fourth inning had been San Francisco's high-water mark, with Luken Baker's home run off Adrian Houser on the Arizona side adding plus-19.1 percent to the Diamondbacks' chances even as the Giants constructed their lead. Angel Ortiz extended Arizona's cushion in the eighth with a solo shot off Michael Fulmer, a swing worth plus-18.7 percent in win probability. The Giants' most damaging moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Bryce Eldridge struck out against Mercado, a single plate appearance that cost San Francisco 25.9 percent in win probability and effectively sealed the outcome.
Amaya was Arizona's standout performer, finishing with a plus-39.5 percent cumulative WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.0, while Eric Haase contributed plus-30.6 percent WPA anchored by his ninth-inning strikeout that added plus-19.0 percent. Luken Baker checked in at plus-22.1 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-2.4. On the pitching side, Juan Morillo led Arizona's staff with plus-23.3 percent WPA, supported by Ryan Thompson at plus-8.3 percent and Spencer Bivens at plus-7.3 percent. The Giants' 16 hits were ultimately rendered moot by the one error and an inability to add insurance runs in the final frames.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.