The St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins played to a 7-7 tie on March 14, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, a result that reflected how dramatically the game shifted in its final innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami holding a 54% win probability, but the Cardinals rallied sharply in the eighth before the Marlins answered to even the score and ultimately exhaust the probability to zero at the final out.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the eighth, when Jeremy Rivas delivered a double off Jake Walkinshaw that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 34.8%, providing the foundation for a four-run Cardinals frame and pushing St. Louis ahead. The Marlins responded in the bottom half with a Ryan Ignoffo home run off Packy Naughton, a blow worth plus 23.6% in win probability that helped claw Miami back into contention. Miami had also done critical damage a half-inning earlier in the bottom of the seventh, when Ian Lewis Jr. doubled off Ryan Fernandez for plus 22.6%, followed quickly by Cristian Hernandez doubling for plus 21.1%, and Yiddi Cappe singling off Ian Bedell for plus 18.6%, a sequence that accounted for the bulk of Miami's five-run seventh.
Rivas finished as the game's top overall performer by WPA at plus 30.4% with an RE24 of plus 1.4, followed by Ignoffo at plus 26.8% and an RE24 of plus 1.2, and Lewis Jr. at plus 22.6% and an RE24 of plus 1.3. On the mound, Andre Pallante led all pitchers at plus 13.7% WPA, with Matt Svanson contributing plus 7.9% and Pete Fairbanks adding plus 6.0%. St. Louis finished with ten hits and no errors while Miami posted eight hits and one error in a game that neither side could ultimately close out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.