The Atlanta Braves defeated the New York Yankees 7-6 at CoolToday Park on March 13, 2026, in a game that was never truly in doubt despite a late Yankees surge. Atlanta built its advantage early, scoring four runs in the bottom of the first inning and adding two more in the sixth and one in the eighth to reach seven runs on 14 hits. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Atlanta's win probability entered the game at 39 percent for the home side and ultimately closed at 100 percent, though the Yankees mounted a five-run ninth inning that tightened the final margin without threatening the outcome.
The game's most consequential sequence centered on the early innings, where Braves starter Didier Fuentes set the tone with the most impactful pitching performance of the afternoon, finishing with a plus-21.5 percent WPA. His strikeout of Oswaldo Cabrera in the top of the second was the single biggest negative swing of the game from New York's perspective, costing the Yankees 12.6 percent in win probability. On the offensive side, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. led all position players with a plus-14.4 percent WPA, his first-inning lineout serving as a 11.0 percent positive swing for Atlanta despite resulting in an out, reflecting the high-leverage context of that early frame. Matt Olson's strikeout in the second, worth plus-11.4 percent for the Braves, reinforced Atlanta's command of the contest from the start.
The Yankees' ninth-inning rally produced the game's most dramatic individual moment when Garrett Martin hit a home run off Ian Mejia that registered a plus-12.8 percent WPA swing, the largest positive play for New York all afternoon. However, reliever Blane Abeyta shut down the remaining threat, including a lineout by Zack Short that cost the Yankees 7.1 percent in win probability, and Abeyta finished with plus-15.2 percent WPA to secure the win alongside Robert Suarez, who added plus-5.0 percent. The model's lean throughout reflected Atlanta's early four-run cushion as the decisive factor, with New York's late charge falling one run short.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.