The Cincinnati Reds handed the San Francisco Giants a 6-1 defeat at Scottsdale Stadium on March 13, 2026, managing 13 hits without an error while the Giants committed one and managed only 7 hits. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with San Francisco holding a 74 percent pre-game home win probability, but that figure eroded steadily before finishing at zero, reflecting a dominant wire-to-wire performance by Cincinnati.
The tone was set immediately by Chase Burns, whose early command swung the game's momentum in decisive fashion. Patrick Bailey's groundout in the bottom of the first shifted win probability by -11.6 percent against the Giants, and Will Brennan's lineout in the bottom of the second followed with a -11.9 percent swing, both off Burns — the two most damaging plays of the night from San Francisco's perspective. Burns finished as the game's top pitching performer by a wide margin, generating a +26.8 percent WPA contribution. Cincinnati struck offensively in the top of the fifth when Nathaniel Lowe doubled off Blade Tidwell for a +10.4 percent win-probability swing, and Lowe finished the night at +7.8 percent WPA with a +1.2 RE24. The Reds added two more runs in the eighth to close out the scoring at 6-1, with Jerar Encarnacion's seventh-inning double off Davis Daniel contributing a +6.8 percent swing and a final line of +6.4 percent WPA.
Beyond Burns, Lyon Richardson added +10.2 percent WPA in relief and Hagen Danner contributed +5.7 percent, giving Cincinnati a deep collective pitching effort. P.J. Higgins led all position players at +11.3 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of -0.4, benefiting from a groundout in the top of the first that ironically shifted probability in Cincinnati's favor by +9.6 percent given the game situation. The model leans toward crediting the Cincinnati pitching staff, headlined by Burns, as the primary driver of a result that made the Giants' pre-game edge entirely irrelevant by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.