The Texas Rangers defeated the Colorado Rockies 9-4 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 13, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided by a dominant seven-run third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Colorado a 44 percent chance of winning at home, but that probability collapsed to zero by the final out as Texas did the bulk of its damage in a single frame against Rockies pitching.
The third inning was the defining sequence of the afternoon, and the win-probability swings within it tell the story clearly. Brandon Nimmo delivered the highest-impact play of the game, a double off Ryan Miller that added 19.5 percentage points of win probability to Texas's chances. Andrew McCutchen followed with a walk off Jose Quintana worth plus 11.8 percent, and Danny Jansen drew another walk off Quintana for an additional 9.8 percent. Josh Smith capped the frame's most consequential stretch with a double off Miller that contributed another 9.6 percent. The Rangers added two more runs in the fifth inning to push the lead to its final margin, while Colorado managed only single runs in the seventh and ninth. Colorado's best chance to shift momentum came in the second inning, when Sam Haggerty grounded into a double play off Jose Quintana, a play that cost the Rangers 15.0 percentage points of win probability, though the team ultimately absorbed it without consequence.
Among individual performers, Nimmo led all batters with a WPA of plus 17.1 and an RE24 of plus 2.8, while Josh Smith posted the game's highest RE24 at plus 3.2 alongside a WPA of plus 16.5. Andrew McCutchen contributed plus 15.5 WPA and plus 2.2 RE24, making the top of the Texas order the clear engine of the offense. On the mound, Jose Corniell led Rangers pitchers with a WPA of plus 0.9, and the model favors this Texas pitching staff's collective performance as the secondary factor in holding Colorado to four runs on four hits with one error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.