The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Detroit Tigers 7-5 at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 13, 2026, handing Detroit a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate found increasingly inevitable as the game progressed. Detroit entered with a 33% pre-game win probability and finished at 0%, a collapse driven largely by a three-run seventh inning that swung momentum decisively toward Pittsburgh.
The single most consequential moment of the game came in the bottom of the seventh, when a fielding error by Chris Meyers shifted win probability by +23.8% in Pittsburgh's favor off Jaden Woods, a sequence that effectively broke the game open. Earlier, Jhostynxon Garcia had done significant damage with a home run off Casey Mize in the top of the third, a swing worth +15.9% in win probability that gave Pittsburgh an early edge they never fully surrendered. Pittsburgh's advantage grew with each Detroit failure to answer, and the line score told the story plainly: Detroit managed only three hits across nine innings against a Pittsburgh staff that stayed composed when the game was in the balance.
Carson Fulmer was the standout arm for Pittsburgh, posting a +16.0% WPA figure and navigating a dangerous eighth inning in which he induced a groundout from Carson Rucker and a flyout from Justice Bigbie under significant pressure. Among Pittsburgh's position players, Seth Stephenson contributed +16.2% WPA, while Garcia finished at +16.1% WPA and +1.7 RE24. Konnor Pilkington and Yohan Ramirez each added positive WPA contributions to round out a collective pitching effort that held Detroit to its final five-run total.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.