The Miami Marlins shut out the New York Mets 1-0 on March 13, 2026, at Clover Park, with the game's lone run arriving in the seventh inning and the pitching staff protecting it the rest of the way. The DiamondIQ model had entered the night giving the Mets a 54 percent chance of winning at home, but that estimate eroded to zero as Miami's arms kept New York off the board across nine innings despite the Mets collecting five hits to the Marlins' four.
The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh, when Christopher Morel singled off Clay Holmes to swing win probability 15.4 percent in Miami's favor, ultimately plating the game's only run. The Mets had their best opportunity to answer in the bottom of the eighth, but Wyatt Young's strikeout against Jack Ralston was the single most damaging swing in win-probability terms, costing New York 22.1 percent. Ralston finished as the top pitching performer by WPA at plus-23.3 percent, while Holmes added plus-15.4 percent despite surrendering the Morel single, and Chris Paddack contributed plus-12.0 percent to Miami's collective shutout effort.
New York mounted a final threat in the ninth against Zach Brzykcy, with Jose Rojas singling to generate a 12.3 percent swing, but Marco Vargas grounded into a double play that effectively ended the game, a sequence that shifted the probability 16.3 percent back toward Miami and made Vargas the top positional player by WPA at plus-16.3 percent despite a minus-0.5 RE24. Morel finished second among position players at plus-10.2 percent WPA with a plus-0.5 RE24, and Bohan Adderley's strikeout to close the ninth removed any remaining doubt, swinging the final 11.9 percent in Miami's favor.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.