The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-2 on March 13, 2026, at Tempe Diablo Stadium, turning a game the DiamondIQ model opened as a virtual coin flip — 49 percent home win probability — into a decisive outcome, with the model's estimate reaching 100 percent by the final out. The Angels built their lead in two bursts, with Jorge Soler's fourth-inning home run off Joey Cantillo providing the game's first meaningful swing, adding 14.7 percent to Los Angeles's win probability and setting the tone for what would become a dominant Angels performance.
The sixth inning proved to be the turning point in both directions. Cleveland mounted a threat when Dayan Frias doubled off Ryan Johnson, a hit that added 15.5 percent to the Guardians' win probability and briefly tightened the game. Los Angeles answered swiftly in the bottom half, with Jo Adell launching a home run off Kolby Allard that added 12.8 percent back to the Angels' side, effectively sealing Cleveland's fate. An earlier double play in the third inning, when CJ Kayfus grounded into one off Grayson Rodriguez, cost the Guardians 9.9 percent win probability and snuffed out what could have been a productive frame.
Rodriguez was the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's measure, finishing with a WPA of plus 22.7 percent, and Camden Minacci contributed an additional plus 6.4 percent in relief. On the offensive side, Soler led all players with a WPA of plus 20.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Adell posted plus 13.9 percent WPA and Stuart Fairchild added plus 12.0 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.3. Cleveland finished with more hits, seven to the Angels' five, but the Guardians' two errors-free effort was not enough to overcome the Angels' timely power.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.