The Cincinnati Reds defeated the San Francisco Giants 1-0 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 13, 2026, holding San Francisco scoreless on five hits while manufacturing the game's only run in the first inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Cincinnati as a modest favorite at 54% pre-game win probability, and that edge held firm as the Reds never surrendered the lead, with the model's estimate climbing to 100% by the final out. Cincinnati's pitching staff was the story of the afternoon, limiting the Giants to a shutout despite allowing five hits across nine innings.
The decisive moments came from the Giants' inability to convert opportunities, with the win-probability swings consistently moving against San Francisco. Luis Matos grounded into a double play in the top of the eighth, a swing of negative 11.6% win probability against the Giants off Zach Maxwell, effectively extinguishing what could have been a rally. Nate Furman had two particularly costly at-bats, flying out in the fifth for a negative 10.0% shift off Pierce Johnson and grounding out in the second for a negative 6.7% shift off Brady Singer. Osleivis Basabe's lineout to end the ninth off Hunter Parks, a negative 7.1% swing, closed the door entirely. On the Cincinnati side, Ruben Ibarra's groundout in the bottom of the eighth added 7.8% to the Reds' win probability off JT Brubaker, helping the home team run out the clock.
Among the top individual performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Sal Stewart led all batters with a positive 9.0% WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus 1.8, the strongest run-expectancy impact of any position player. Ibarra followed at plus 7.8% WPA, and Tyler Fitzgerald added plus 6.0% WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.3. On the mound, Brady Singer was the most valuable pitcher by this measure at plus 16.6% WPA, followed closely by Hunter Parks at plus 15.2% and Maxwell at plus 10.8%, a trio that collectively denied San Francisco any path back into the game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.