The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Kansas City Royals an 11-5 defeat at Surprise Stadium on March 13, 2026, a game that began as a competitive contest before Arizona pulled away with a five-run ninth inning to seal the final margin. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Kansas City holding a 46% chance of winning at home and closed at 0%, reflecting just how thoroughly the Diamondbacks controlled the game's late stages despite a back-and-forth middle stretch.
The decisive turning points came on both sides of the ledger. Ben McLaughlin delivered the single biggest positive swing for Arizona with a double off Michael Wacha in the top of the third, adding 19.5 percentage points to the Diamondbacks' win probability and anchoring what would be his game-high WPA of plus-23.1 with a RE24 of plus-2.5, the best individual offensive line of the afternoon. Kansas City countered in the bottom of the fourth when Carter Jensen launched a home run off Philip Abner, the largest single swing of the game at plus-20.9 WPA for the Royals, briefly tightening the contest. A Luca Tresh fielding error in the bottom of the seventh generated a 14.1-point swing in Kansas City's favor as well, keeping the Royals within striking distance through seven innings. However, Jensen's strikeout against Kade Strowd in the sixth cost Kansas City 14.0 points of win probability, and Connor Scott's strikeout off Jonathan Loáisiga in the eighth shed another 12.9 points, effectively draining the Royals' remaining equity.
On the mound, Jonathan Loáisiga was the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-23.3 WPA to go along with the strikeout of Scott that punctuated Kansas City's offensive collapse. Andrew Hoffmann and Kade Strowd contributed plus-6.8 and plus-6.7 WPA respectively in supporting roles. Jorge Barrosa added a quiet but meaningful plus-10.1 WPA with a plus-0.7 RE24 for Arizona's offense, contributing to the depth of production that spread across 14 hits despite four Diamondbacks errors that occasionally complicated the afternoon. The model leans toward crediting the Diamondbacks' late-game execution and bullpen performance as the primary factors in what became a comfortable final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.