The Chicago White Sox defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-2 on March 13, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, building their lead methodically before surviving a Cubs rally in the late innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 66 percent home win probability for the White Sox, and that figure climbed to a certainty of 100 percent by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Chicago's South Siders controlled the outcome despite some anxious moments.
The decisive sequence centered on the sixth and seventh innings. In the bottom of the sixth, Everson Pereira delivered the pivotal offensive blow, connecting on a home run off Jeff Brigham that shifted win probability 11.2 percent in the White Sox favor. The Cubs responded in the top of the sixth when a fielding error off Sean Newcomb against Miguel Amaya moved the needle 16.4 percent toward the Cubs, and BJ Murray's walk in the seventh added another 16.9 percent swing, indicating genuine threat. However, the Cubs could not convert, as Karson Simas's pop out cost them 12.2 percent and Ben Cowles's strikeout shed another 11.0 percent, both off Newcomb, who escaped the jam and effectively sealed the White Sox advantage.
On the individual ledger, Korey Lee led all position players with a WPA of plus 14.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Miguel Amaya contributed plus 13.6 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 in a losing effort for the Cubs. BJ Murray added plus 12.7 percent WPA for Chicago as well. On the mound, Davis Martin paced White Sox pitchers at plus 8.3 percent WPA, followed by Jordan Leasure at plus 6.3 percent and Jordan Hicks at plus 5.9 percent, as the White Sox pitching staff combined to hold the Cubs to just two runs on five hits with one error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.