MLB Recap · March 13, 2026

Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

HOU4

Final

STL5

Line Score

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
HOU	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	8	1
STL	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	2	5	5	0

The Story

The St. Louis Cardinals walked off the Houston Astros 5-4 on March 13, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, rallying for two runs in the bottom of the ninth to complete the comeback. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Houston favored at 54% road win probability, but by the final out that figure had swung entirely to St. Louis at 100%.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the ninth inning against Astros reliever Amos Willingham. A fielding error on Dakota Harris opened the door, adding 12.8% in win probability for the Cardinals, and Andrew Sojka followed with a walk worth another 12.3%. The pivotal moment came when Colton Ledbetter lined a walk-off single that shifted the win probability a staggering 82.3 points in St. Louis's favor, delivering the win. Anyelo Encarnacion's strikeout earlier in the frame had briefly tightened the situation at -25.9%, as did Andy Yerzy's strikeout in the eighth off Christian Roa at -12.9%, but Ledbetter's hit rendered both inconsequential.

Ledbetter was the undisputed standout of the game, finishing with a combined WPA of +88.5% and a RE24 of +2.5, numbers that reflect both the leverage and the run-context value of his contributions. On the pitching side, J.P. France led all pitchers with a +24.4% WPA, followed closely by Christian Roa at +23.3% and Austin Love at +8.1%, a trio that kept Houston's lineup manageable through most of the contest. Ramon Mendoza added +15.5% WPA and a RE24 of +1.4 at the plate to support the Cardinals' late-inning push.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.