The Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants played to a 3-3 tie on March 12, 2026, at Scottsdale Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home Giants win sitting at 49 percent before first pitch and dropping to zero percent at the final out. The White Sox scored once in the second, once in the third, and once in the seventh, while San Francisco answered with single runs in the fourth, fifth, and ninth to force the deadlock. Neither club committed an error, with Chicago finishing with nine hits and the Giants collecting six.
The game's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Jerar Encarnacion lifted a sacrifice fly off Tyson Miller that swung win probability 33.6 percent in San Francisco's favor, completing the Giants' comeback from a 3-2 deficit. That play was the single largest win-probability swing of the afternoon in either direction. Earlier, Tristan Peters had provided Chicago's final lead with a triple off Tristan Beck in the top of the seventh, shifting the balance 11.4 percent toward the White Sox, while Matt Chapman's fifth-inning single off Jonathan Cannon was equally consequential in the other direction at plus 11.4 percent for San Francisco. A Tyler Fitzgerald strikeout against Lucas Sims in the eighth represented the largest negative swing for the Giants, costing them 12.9 percent in win probability at a moment when they needed baserunners.
Among individual performers, Encarnacion finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 30.3 percent, with Chapman second at plus 16.2 percent and Derek Hill contributing plus 9.6 percent. On the pitching side, Lucas Sims led all pitchers with plus 23.3 percent WPA, followed by Brandon Eisert at plus 9.7 percent and Caleb Kilian at plus 7.4 percent. The DiamondIQ model leans toward viewing Sims's eighth-inning work as the most analytically significant pitching contribution of the afternoon given the leverage context in which he stranded the Giants threat before Encarnacion ultimately forced the draw one half-inning later.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.