The Los Angeles Dodgers handled the Cincinnati Reds 9-5 at Camelback Ranch on March 12, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers win from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Los Angeles did its most decisive damage early, plating four runs in the bottom of the first inning and never relinquishing the lead. The game's single biggest swing came in the bottom of the third, when Max Muncy connected for a home run off Nick Lodolo that added 17.6 percentage points of win probability to the Dodgers' ledger, effectively turning a competitive ballgame into a controlled performance. Teoscar Hernández further extended the cushion with a fifth-inning home run off Tejay Antone worth 7.6 percentage points, while Dalton Rushing's strikeout to open the bottom of the first against Lodolo had already added 7.2 points before the offense took over.
Cincinnati showed brief signs of life in the third and seventh innings, with Noelvi Marte's single off Myles Caba generating 9.7 percentage points of win probability for the Reds and ranking as their most impactful offensive moment of the afternoon. Spencer Steer's groundout against Cole Irvin in the top of the second was the single most damaging sequence for Cincinnati at the plate, costing the club 10.4 percentage points at a moment when they still had realistic hope of closing the gap. The Reds finished with seven hits and no errors, but their 5-run output was never enough against a Dodgers lineup that produced 13 hits. Among individual performers tracked by the DiamondIQ model, Muncy led all batters at plus-16.4 percent WPA, while Hernández contributed plus-8.2 percent WPA and a game-high plus-2.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Paul Gervase led Dodgers relievers with plus-6.4 percent WPA, followed by Cole Irvin at plus-5.8 percent and Kyle Hurt at plus-4.6 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.