Minnesota topped Boston 8-5 at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 12, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win opening at 54% before climbing to 100% by the final out. The Twins built their lead incrementally through six innings, with the game's most pivotal early swing coming in the bottom of the sixth when Orlando Arcia drove a home run off Kyle Keller, a blow that added 28.7 percentage points to Minnesota's win probability. Boston kept pace through seven, as the Red Sox trailed but remained within reach entering the eighth inning.
The game effectively ended in a chaotic eighth inning that featured decisive contributions from both sides. Boston briefly threatened in the top half when Mikey Romero's double and Nathan Hickey's single off Eric Orze each added 18.3 percentage points to the Red Sox's win probability, trimming the deficit and setting up what looked like a potential rally. Minnesota answered emphatically in the bottom half, with Alex Jackson drawing a walk off Reidis Sena that added 18.7 percentage points, and then Rayne Doncon delivering a two-base hit off the same pitcher that swung the window by 33.5 percentage points, the single largest probability shift of the night, effectively sealing the outcome.
Doncon finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-36.9 and an RE24 of plus-2.6. Arcia was close behind at plus-33.3 WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, while Jackson contributed plus-18.7 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Ryan Watson led Minnesota's staff with a plus-10.6 WPA mark, supported by Christian Becerra at plus-6.2 and Grant Hartwig at plus-6.0, a trio that held Boston scoreless over the final frame and secured the three-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.