The Washington Nationals rallied past the Houston Astros 3-2 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 12, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and swinging it entirely to zero by the final out. Washington manufactured all three of its runs in the fifth and ninth innings, leaving Houston's offense unable to answer after plating single runs in the first and third frames. The game remained a 2-1 Astros advantage deep into the late innings before the Nationals seized control with a two-run ninth.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the ninth against Logan VanWey. Riley Adams opened the damage with a double that shifted the win probability in Washington's favor by 20.4 percent, and Trey Lipscomb followed with a single that added another 34.1 percent — the single most impactful plate appearance of the game. Those two hits combined to flip the contest entirely, and Lipscomb's blow stood as the swing play of the night by a considerable margin. In the bottom of the ninth, Griff McGarry protected the lead by stranding Houston's threat, with Jack Winkler's strikeout adding 27.0 percent to Washington's win probability. A Jason Schiavone walk added mild tension, but John Garcia's flyout ended the game, costing Houston 11.9 percent in their final meaningful opportunity.
Lipscomb finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-34.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Adams contributed plus-20.4 percent and plus-0.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Mike Burrows led Washington's staff with a plus-16.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Ken Waldichuk at plus-14.4 percent and Roddery Muñoz at plus-10.8 percent, a collective effort that kept Houston's offense contained long enough for the Nationals' ninth-inning surge to decide matters.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.