The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the New York Mets 3-1 on March 12, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with the Cardinals scoring all three of their runs in the first two innings and holding on from there. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Cardinals as a modest favorite at 54% home win probability, and that estimate climbed steadily to 100% by the final out as St. Louis pitching kept New York off the board after the first inning.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the eighth, when the Mets had a chance to chip into the deficit but came up empty. Ben Rortvedt's strikeout against Darlin Saladin was the single most damaging play of the game, swinging win probability 14.3 percentage points against New York, and Vladi Gomez followed with another strikeout off Matt Pushard that cost the Mets an additional 8.9 points of win probability. JT Schwartz and Matt Rudick both drew walks off Pushard, adding 7.3 and 7.0 percentage points of win probability respectively for the Mets, but those opportunities ultimately went to waste. On the offensive side for St. Louis, Alec Burleson's second-inning single off Sean Manaea was the most productive hit of the night, generating 9.2 points of win probability and a RE24 of plus-0.4 to help put the Cardinals ahead by three runs early.
The Cardinals' pitching staff was the clear story of the game. Michael McGreevy led all pitchers with plus-19.3% WPA, followed by Darlin Saladin at plus-14.3% WPA and George Soriano at plus-7.2% WPA, a collective effort that smothered a Mets lineup that managed five hits but never seriously threatened the Cardinal lead after the first inning.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.