The Chicago Cubs walked off the Kansas City Royals 9-8 at Sloan Park on March 11, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically in the final inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago, and while Kansas City threatened to flip the outcome entirely, the model closed at 100 percent in favor of the Cubs after a chaotic ninth inning decided everything.
The Cubs built a 5-0 advantage after a five-run second inning, with Pedro Ramírez delivering the decisive blow of that frame, a home run off Mitch Spence that carried a win-probability swing of plus-23.9 percent. Kansas City clawed back steadily, scoring two in the third, two in the fourth, one in the seventh, one in the eighth, and then landing a crushing blow in the top of the ninth when Blake Mitchell hit a home run off Gavin Hollowell to give the Royals an 8-7 lead, a swing of plus-38.4 percent that briefly made Kansas City the heavy favorite. The bottom half of the ninth, however, belonged entirely to Chicago. Matt Halbach opened the comeback with a double off Ben Sears worth plus-35.9 percent, Justin Dean followed with another double at plus-25.1 percent, and Scott Kingery capped the rally with a single that produced a plus-20.4 percent swing and drove in the winning run.
Halbach finished as the game's top overall performer by combined WPA at plus-38.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Kingery posted plus-37.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6 across his contributions in the decisive frame. On the mound, Zachary Cawyer led Chicago's pitching staff by WPA at plus-16.2 percent, followed by Mason Black at plus-13.3 percent and Hunter Harvey at plus-7.1 percent. The Cubs improved to a final score line of 9 runs on 13 hits against 3 errors, while Kansas City finished with 8 runs on 8 hits and 1 error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.