The Washington Nationals defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 on March 11, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The Cardinals managed just one run across nine innings against a Nationals pitching staff that kept them largely at bay, while Washington's offense did its decisive damage in the eighth inning to pull away from what had been a tight contest.
The game's most impactful sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Abimelec Ortiz delivered a double off Gerson Moreno that swung win probability by plus 20.8 percent, the single largest play of the contest. Trey Lipscomb followed with a single off Moreno that added another 11.4 percent, and together those two at-bats effectively closed the door on any Cardinals comeback. St. Louis had briefly trimmed into the game in the top of the sixth, when Nolan Gorman singled off Brad Lord for a plus 13.2 percent swing, though Washington's pitchers absorbed that pressure and held. Rainiel Rodriguez was the Cardinals' most damaging out, grounding into a double play in the fifth for minus 6.9 percent and flying out in the ninth for minus 6.3 percent, two moments that deflated St. Louis's slim chances.
On the individual ledger, Ortiz led all players by WPA at plus 20.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Lipscomb added plus 11.4 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.8. Gorman paced the Cardinals' batters at plus 10.2 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.6, though his contribution was ultimately not enough. Among pitchers, Cade Cavalli led Washington's staff at plus 10.8 percent, followed closely by Gus Varland at plus 10.6 percent and Dustin May at plus 8.5 percent, a collective effort that limited St. Louis to five hits and no errors conceded.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.