The Athletics defeated the Chicago White Sox 11-7 at Hohokam Stadium on March 10, 2026, in a game that began in a deadlock and gradually tilted Oakland's way before the home side pulled away decisively in the later innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Athletics eventually controlled the outcome despite Chicago's early resistance. The White Sox drew first blood with three runs in the top of the first, but Oakland matched that total immediately, and the game remained competitive until the Athletics began to separate themselves in the middle frames.
The decisive shift came in stages, with individual plays swinging the probability meter sharply in Oakland's direction. In the bottom of the seventh, Jared Dickey delivered a single off Grant Taylor that added 28.1 percent to the Athletics' win probability, the single largest swing of the game, helping fuel a three-run inning that effectively closed out any Chicago comeback. Earlier, in the top of the third, Korey Lee had provided the biggest swing of the game for the White Sox side, a home run off Jeffrey Springs that added 26.9 percent to Chicago's win probability and briefly gave the visitors momentum. Derek Hill's fifth-inning single off Mark Leiter Jr. added another 12.7 percent for Chicago, while Shea Langeliers answered with a home run off Mark McLaughlin in the bottom of the fourth worth 12.1 percent for Oakland. A Colby Thomas double play in the bottom of the sixth cost the Athletics 11.9 percent, a brief stall before the seventh-inning surge.
Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's measurements, Dickey led all batters with a WPA of plus 27.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.6, while Lee paced Chicago with plus 26.4 percent WPA and a team-best plus 2.8 RE24 despite ending up on the losing side. Derek Hill contributed plus 18.7 percent WPA for the White Sox. On the mound, Joey Estes was Oakland's most impactful arm, posting plus 19.2 percent WPA, with Jordan Leasure and Michael Kelly adding plus 6.8 and plus 4.2 percent respectively. The Athletics finished with 16 hits and committed no errors, while Chicago's three errors contributed to a final margin that reflected both teams' respective command of the contest.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.