The Seattle Mariners defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-3 at Peoria Stadium on March 10, 2026, in a game that remained close through five innings before a pivotal sixth inning determined the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Seattle a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent by the final out.
The decisive sequence came in the sixth inning. Kameron Misner delivered the game's most impactful blow, connecting on a home run off Reid Easterly that shifted win probability by 30.2 percent in Kansas City's favor and briefly upended the game's trajectory. Seattle answered immediately in the bottom half, where Bill Knight's double off Héctor Neris swung win probability 13.8 percent toward the Mariners, restoring their advantage. A bases-loaded groundout by Jakson Reetz off Neris cost Kansas City 12.5 percent in win probability, representing the second-largest single negative swing of the game and effectively containing the damage from Misner's shot. The Royals managed to plate three total runs on eight hits but were unable to sustain pressure, with Justin Johnson's ninth-inning strikeout off Michael Rucker dropping Kansas City's chances by 8.9 percent and closing the door.
On the offensive side, Misner led all batters with a 31.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6 despite pitching for the losing side, a reflection of how dramatically his home run altered the game's state. Knight was the game's most valuable Seattle contributor at plus-21.3 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Lazaro Montes added plus-8.2 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. On the mound, Michael Rucker led Seattle's staff with a 15.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Cooper Criswell at plus-11.1 percent and Robinson Ortiz at plus-10.8 percent, a collective pitching performance that held Kansas City to three runs and secured the victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.