The San Diego Padres rolled to a 10-2 victory over the Los Angeles Angels at Tempe Diablo Stadium on March 10, 2026, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Angels win at 0% after entering the day at 44%. San Diego collected 15 hits and committed no errors, while Los Angeles managed just 8 hits and was hurt by one miscue of their own. The Padres scored in five of nine innings, but the game turned decisively in the fourth, when they plated five runs off Angels reliever Mitch Farris and effectively closed the door on any Angels comeback.
The biggest swing of the contest came on a Jase Bowen home run in the top of the fourth inning, a blow off Farris that shifted win probability 28.0 percentage points in San Diego's favor. That single at-bat defined the outcome more than any other moment in the game. Pablo Reyes layered on further damage in that same inning with a single worth 11.2 percentage points, and he had already made his presence felt in the second with another single that moved the needle 8.7 points. A Mason McCoy walk off Farris added another 7.5 points to the Padres' mounting advantage. The Angels' lone bright spot by win-probability impact was Jo Adell, whose third-inning single off Walker Buehler registered plus 7.4 percentage points, briefly keeping Los Angeles within reach before the fourth-inning eruption.
Reyes finished as the game's most well-rounded offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, posting a WPA of plus 19.9 and an RE24 of plus 2.9, while Bowen led all players in raw win-probability added at plus 25.7 despite a slightly lower RE24 of plus 2.7. On the mound, Jackson Wolf paced all pitchers with a WPA of plus 4.5, providing the Padres with a stable foundation that the offense more than rewarded.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.