Houston held off Baltimore 7-6 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 10, 2026, in a back-and-forth contest that saw the lead change hands multiple times before the Astros secured the win in the ninth. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and closed it at 100 percent, reflecting just how firmly the Astros seized control by the final out. Baltimore committed three errors on the night against a clean Houston defense, a disparity that contributed to the ultimate margin.
The game's most consequential single swing came in the fifth inning, when Coby Mayo singled off Bryan King to deliver a +19.2 percent win-probability swing that kept Baltimore's hopes alive after Houston had built an early 2-0 advantage. Mayo finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined +38.1 percent WPA and a +4.2 RE24, making him easily the most impactful bat on either side. Houston answered decisively in the bottom of the sixth, where Jack Winkler doubled off Andrew Magno for a +18.0 percent swing that shifted momentum back to the Astros and anchored a four-run frame that effectively turned a deficit into a cushion. Baltimore retook a brief lead in the seventh on a Brandon Butterworth single off Michael Knorr worth +15.8 percent, but Houston's ninth-inning rally settled matters when Carlos Pérez was hit by a pitch from Gerald Ogando (+12.5 percent) and Tyler Whitaker followed with a walk-off sacrifice fly (+15.9 percent).
On the pitching side, Eric Torres led all arms with a +19.2 percent WPA for Houston, while Tom Cosgrove added +13.5 percent and Roddery Muñoz contributed +7.5 percent to close the door. Baltimore got strong individual offensive production from Mayo and saw Tyler Whitaker post +13.2 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24, but the Orioles' three-error night proved too costly to overcome against a Houston club that played a clean defensive game throughout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.