The Washington Nationals defeated the Miami Marlins 7-5 on March 10, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, overcoming a game that remained competitive deep into the late innings. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54% pre-game win probability favoring Miami as the home side, but by the final out that figure had fallen to 0% as Washington seized control in dramatic fashion.
The pivotal sequence came in the eighth inning, which proved decisive for both clubs. Johnathon Thomas delivered the biggest Washington blow of that frame with a home run off Michael Petersen that shifted win probability by plus 18.7 points, and Randal Diaz followed with a single off Petersen that added another 13.7 points, pushing the Nationals to a 6-3 advantage at that stage. Miami answered in the bottom half when Ethan O'Donnell connected on a home run off Trevor Gott for the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 22.8 points, pulling the Marlins within two. However, Dub Gleed's groundout against Gott in the same inning erased 12.9 points of Miami's leverage and effectively sealed Washington's cushion. Earlier, Jesús Bastidas had kept Miami's chances alive in the sixth with a single off Jake Eder worth plus 14.7 points of win probability.
Among the individual performers, Thomas led Washington batters with a combined WPA of plus 21.0 and an RE24 of plus 1.4, while Bastidas finished at plus 13.9 WPA and plus 0.9 RE24 to pace Miami's offense. On the pitching side, Clayton Beeter contributed plus 8.3 points of win probability for Washington, followed by Pete Fairbanks at plus 7.1 and Foster Griffin at plus 6.9, a trio that helped hold the Marlins at bay and close out the two-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.