The San Francisco Giants edged the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 10, 2026, overcoming a late Guardians rally in the ninth inning to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Cleveland, but the Giants seized control through a decisive fourth inning before holding on through a tense final frame, ultimately leaving the Guardians with a final win probability of zero.
The fourth inning proved to be the game's turning point. Tyler Fitzgerald delivered the biggest offensive blow, connecting on a home run off Steven Pérez that shifted win probability by 20.9 percentage points in San Francisco's favor. Later in the same inning, a field error charged to Parks Harber off Tanner Bibee added another 10.3 percentage points to the Giants' advantage. Those two plays alone reshaped the contest, pushing Cleveland into a deficit it would spend the rest of the game chasing. The Guardians did mount a three-run ninth-inning surge, briefly threatening to erase the deficit, but the comeback fell short.
The individual performance numbers reinforced San Francisco's edge throughout the game. Fitzgerald finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 18.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Johnathan Rodríguez contributed plus 18.0 percent WPA largely by striking out as the final out of the Guardians' ninth-inning rally, a play that added 21.7 percentage points to San Francisco's win probability. Harber added plus 8.8 percent WPA on the strength of the error he drew. On the mound, Braxton Roxby, Carson Seymour, and Hayden Birdsong each contributed positively, posting WPA figures of plus 6.3, plus 6.2, and plus 6.0 percent respectively, as the Giants' pitching staff managed Cleveland's errors-plagued lineup through the final innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.