The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 at Camelback Ranch on March 10, 2026, moving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 54 percent before the game to a certainty at its conclusion. Los Angeles generated most of its damage in the fourth inning, when Eliezer Alfonzo delivered a double off Kade Strowd that added 11.9 percent to the Dodgers' win probability, the single most impactful play of the game. Santiago Espinal followed with a run-scoring single off Strowd that added another 5.1 percent, and the Dodgers tacked on an additional run in the sixth to extend their lead to 4-1. Arizona's best opportunity to claw back came in the top of the sixth, when Tim Tawa hit a double off Blake Treinen that added 5.3 percent to the Diamondbacks' win probability, but a fielder's choice out by James McCann off Treinen two at-bats earlier had already cost Arizona 5.6 percent, effectively neutralizing the threat before it materialized.
On the pitching side, Tyler Glasnow was the most valuable arm on the day, generating 14.4 percent in win probability added for Los Angeles, while Brandon Pfaadt contributed 7.1 percent in the same category. Chris Campos added 6.9 percent in WPA support out of the bullpen. At the plate, Alfonzo led all batters with a final WPA of plus 10.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Luken Baker contributed plus 6.8 percent WPA and Espinal finished at plus 6.2 percent. Arizona committed two errors and managed only five hits, leaving the Diamondbacks on the wrong side of a game that Los Angeles controlled from the middle innings onward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.