The New York Mets handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 6-1 defeat at Clover Park on March 10, 2026, a game that was effectively decided in the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered with the Mets as a modest 54 percent home favorite, but by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent as New York put together a dominant performance across all phases.
The third inning served as the fulcrum of the contest. Francisco Alvarez delivered the game's most consequential blow, a home run off Jared Shuster that shifted win probability by plus 15.9 percent in the Mets' favor. Jorge Polanco followed with another home run against Shuster in the same frame, adding another plus 10.6 percent swing and effectively burying St. Louis. The Cardinals had a chance to answer earlier in the inning when Yohel Pozo came to the plate but a flyout off David Peterson cost the visiting club 12.0 percent in win probability, snuffing out any momentum before New York's bats erupted. Brett Baty contributed a fifth-inning single off Edwin Núñez worth plus 5.2 percent, while Chase Davis struck out against Christian Scott in the sixth for a minus 4.7 percent blow to the Cardinals' dwindling chances.
Among the standout performers, Alvarez led all batters with a plus 14.8 percent WPA and 1.3 RE24, while Polanco posted plus 11.8 percent WPA and paced all hitters with a 1.4 RE24. Nelson Velázquez also contributed meaningfully, finishing with a plus 7.5 percent WPA and a team-best 1.8 RE24. On the mound, David Peterson headlined the pitching staff with a plus 10.4 percent WPA, supported by Christian Scott at plus 4.9 percent and Brooks Raley at plus 3.5 percent. The Cardinals finished with just three hits against a Mets pitching group that kept New York firmly in command from the third inning onward.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.