The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Seattle Mariners 2-1 on March 9, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, completing a tight pitching duel with a ninth-inning single that sealed the win. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Arizona, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent on the final play of the night.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Adrian Rodriguez lofted a single off Tyler Cleveland that swung win probability by 37.4 percent, the largest single-play shift of the game and the hit that ended it. That dramatic finish overshadowed a difficult eighth inning for the Diamondbacks, where Aramis Garcia grounded out for a 11.5 percent win probability loss and Caleb Roberts followed with a pop out that cost another 9.3 percent, both coming against Blas Castaño. Arizona had also navigated a modest Seattle threat in the fifth, when Rhylan Thomas singled off Andrew Hoffmann to generate a 9.1 percent swing in the Mariners' favor before Brendan Donovan's single briefly pushed momentum back Arizona's way at minus 8.5 percent.
Rodriguez led all batters with a 37.4 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Jhonny Pereda and Brady Counsell contributed 5.9 and 5.8 percent WPA respectively to round out Arizona's offensive contributors. On the mound, Casey Anderson paced Arizona's pitching staff with 13.5 percent WPA, followed by Blas Castaño at 10.9 percent and Gerardo Carrillo at 10.6 percent. Seattle finished with five hits and no errors but could not push across more than a single run, leaving the Diamondbacks with the 2-1 victory in a game that stayed close until Rodriguez's walk-off blow.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.