The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on March 9, 2026, completing a comeback victory that erased a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of 54 percent in favor of the home team. The Dodgers scored in bunches across the final three innings, plating single runs in the seventh and eighth to take the lead before Milwaukee mounted a late response that fell just short.
The two most consequential plays of the game came at opposite ends of the win-probability spectrum. Seby Zavala delivered a go-ahead single off Shane Drohan in the top of the eighth inning, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at a 20.5 percent swing in the Dodgers' favor and which produced 1.3 runs above expectation. That blow was preceded by Ryan Fitzgerald's single off Drohan in the seventh, itself worth a 14.3 percent probability shift. Milwaukee had kept pace thanks in part to Jake Bauers, whose fifth-inning home run off River Ryan represented a 13.4 percent swing toward the Brewers. But in the ninth, with Milwaukee threatening, Mike Boeve grounded out against Ryder Ryan in a situation that paradoxically generated the game's largest single win-probability movement, a 21.4 percent swing confirming the Dodgers' hold on the outcome.
On the pitching side, Antoine Kelly led Brewers relievers with a 8.3 percent win-probability contribution, while Cody Morse and Jacob Waguespack added 7.2 and 6.8 percent respectively, though those efforts were ultimately not enough to preserve the lead. Luis Rengifo's double-play grounder against Kelly in the seventh, a minus-11.6 percent swing for Milwaukee's chances, proved particularly costly in a tightly contested game where every sequence carried outsized weight.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.