The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Detroit Tigers 5-0 on March 8, 2026, at TD Ballpark, with all five runs crossing the plate through the first four innings and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability to a final 100%.
The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, where Toronto did most of its damage against Detroit starter Johan Simon. Addison Barger delivered a single that shifted win probability by plus 13.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and Tyler Heineman followed with a single of his own for an additional plus 7.6 points. Barger had already done damage in the second inning, connecting on a home run off Bryan Sammons that added 7.4 percentage points to Toronto's chances. On the Detroit side, the most damaging moments came when Tomas Nido grounded into a double play in the top of the fifth off Angel Bastardo, costing the Tigers 4.3 percentage points, while Davis Schneider's pop out in the third shed another 3.8 points from their probability.
Barger finished as the clear standout performer, posting a game-high plus 20.6% WPA and a plus 2.3 RE24 to lead all batters. Tyler Heineman contributed plus 6.1% WPA and a plus 1.0 RE24, with Josh Kasevich adding plus 4.8% WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 in support. On the mound, Kevin Gausman led Toronto's pitching staff with plus 8.0% WPA, followed by Angel Bastardo at plus 6.2% WPA and Tyler Rogers at plus 2.0%, as the Blue Jays combined to hold Detroit to seven hits while allowing no runs across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.